SpaceX is expected to go public tomorrow. I see it as a useful opportunity to practice thinking clearly before the result is known. Writing down my view in advance gives me something honest to compare with reality later.

The first issue is valuation. At $1.7 trillion, it feels expensive—but sentiment cannot be ignored. If enough people become excited and buy aggressively, the market may still push the price much higher.

This also comes after I tried to buy the dip in DRAM and Nokia and quickly lost almost 15%. That experience reminded me to take stop-losses and risk control seriously.

I have been losing money recently, and part of me wants to make time my ally rather than keep trading and researching every short-term move. The better approach may be to buy excellent companies, hold them for a long time, and put more energy into increasing my income outside the market.

My capital base is still small. Even if I could earn 15% a year, the return on my regular contributions would only amount to a few thousand yuan.

Fable 5 taught me that the speed of real wealth accumulation is still driven largely by income outside the market.

Investment experience takes time. I need to keep learning through practice.

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Unfortunately, I did not finish this piece before SpaceX listed on June 12. The stock opened around 150 and rose to roughly 170, producing a gain of about 10% on the first day.

I did not approach this article with enough discipline, and I still had not finished it after the listing.

That disappointed me because I missed a clean opportunity to test and improve my judgment.